District planning
District enrollment forecast
How many K–12 students a Washington school district may have over the next five years, with a likely range. Built from official OSPI enrollment, county births and county housing growth.
Estimate by Washington School Map, not an official district projection
Quick picks
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How it works in 3 steps
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Official enrollment
We start from each district’s K–12 student count by grade, as reported to OSPI, the state education office, for every school year since 2015–16.
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County births and housing growth
Kindergarten classes follow births in the county five to six years earlier. A small adjustment follows how fast new homes are being built in the county.
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A 5-year estimate with a range
Each grade moves up a year at a time. You get a middle estimate and a low–high range that shows how far it could reasonably move.
What this forecast is, and is not
It is
- A planning estimate made by Washington School Map from public data.
- The same method for every district, with every step and source shown.
- Tested against what really happened in past years.
It is not
- An official projection from the district or OSPI. Districts make their own.
- Aware of new schools, boundary changes, program moves or large new developments.
- A forecast for any single school.
Outlook
What drives this estimate
By grade band and scenario Included in District Planning
How accurate is it?
How we estimated this Method, settings and sources
Method
- Grade progression: for each grade, the number of students in that grade divided by the number in the grade below the year before, pooled over the last four school years after the pandemic closures. Each grade moves up one year at a time with that ratio.
- Kindergarten: the district’s kindergarten class divided by births in its county five to six years earlier (kindergartners must be 5 by August 31), applied to the births of the children who will start kindergarten in each future year.
- Housing: if new housing in the county is now being built faster or slower than during those four years, the estimate moves up or down by half of that difference, at most 1% a year. County level only, because housing estimates are not published by school district.
- Scenarios: the low and high estimates use the district’s lowest and highest single-year ratio for each grade and for kindergarten. Districts with fewer than 1,000 students get an extra 2% a year of range.
- The estimate cannot know about new schools, boundary changes, program moves, policy changes or large developments. Districts make their own official projections.
Sources
Reading a forecast
- The middle estimate is the most likely path. It is what happens if the district’s recent years keep repeating. It is not a promise.
- The range matters as much as the middle. Low and high show what happens if the district’s worst or best recent year repeated every year. The real number usually lands inside it.
- Percent change is not students. A 5% drop is 50 students in a district of 1,000 and 1,500 students in a district of 30,000.
- Small districts jump around. In a district of a few hundred students, a few families moving can change enrollment a lot, so the range is wider.
- Further out is less certain. The first year is the most reliable. Five years out, the range is widest.